Cross posted from The Left Anchor
The chattering class has continued to talk about the Democrats relative weakness in comparison to McCain over the last few weeks and months. Some argue that the extended primary season has damaged Barack Obama, and will serve to make this election closer than it would be. But if we look at the way the numbers have moved over the last few months, this reasoning just doesn't bear out. Let's take a look at Pollster's tracking of the general election.
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While the above graph appears to show a fluctuating yet tight race, McCain has a fundamental problem that is often left unmentioned in the mainstream media: his support more or less tops out at 45-47%. Since April 1st, McCain has not polled higher than 48% against Obama, and has done so only twice. During that same time period, Obama polled at 51% once and at 50% twice. You might note that this poll shows McCain with an average lead in the polls, but this is misleading as it includes all the polls extending back to early January before Obama was known to many voters. Since April 1st, Obama has averaged 1.3% better than McCain. Even with the Reverend Wright story, the constant attacks from both the Clinton and McCain camps, Obama has consistently held steady, while McCain -- in the complete absence of any challenge -- can't seem to get any more traction among the voters. Without some massive scandal erupting around the campaign, what we're looking at now is probably Obama's weakest point (and McCain's strongest).
And let's not forget that these numbers are all pre-nomination. Over the next few weeks Obama will receive a bump for securing then nomination, plus Hillary Clinton will cease her attacks and begin to campaign for him. Long term, Obama will eventually lock down the vast majority of Hillary's supporters. The most recent CBS News Poll says that almost a quarter of Clinton supporters would back McCain in the general election. This number should come down as the heat of the primary battle cools off after Hillary endorses Obama on Saturday. I find it hard to believe that the divisions among Democrats, such as they exist, will get any worse. But even factoring in those current divisions, the CBS Poll shows Obama holds a 6% lead over McCain. That is massive, and all but one day of the poll was conducted before Obama officially won the necessary delegates to secure the nomination.
Largely, I see the general election battle as a turnout game. Given the nature of Obama's candidacy, and the massive turnout in the Democratic primaries this year, none of these polls can claim to accurately measure how Obama will affect the makeup of the electorate this year. Common sense tells us that Obama will increase black turnout as well as youth turnout, but he may negatively affect the turnout of other typical Democratic constituencies. If this primary season has taught us anything, it's that this is going to be a very difficult election to poll. But the Obama campaign has been effective thus far in driving turnout for their key demographics, and I see no reason why the campaign won't be as effective in the general election. We can thank the caucus states for demanding the kind of long term voter turnout efforts that will ultimately serve Obama so well in November.
And if this really is a turnout contest, McCain's continued poor showing among his base (long after securing the nomination, the Senator could still only secure 3 out of 4 Republican voters in primary contests), suggests that turnout on the Republican side is likely to be weaker than in recent years. Moreover, their inability to secure strong candidates for many of their down-ticket races is also going to affect turnout, the NRCC and NRSC are cash poor relative to their Democratic counterparts, and McCain has had a difficult time energizing the donors that gave Bush his historic fund raising numbers in 2004. Lastly, the GOP shot their social issues wad last time. Eleven states voted on gay marriage measures in that election. What ballot initiatives can they use this time around to drive voters to the polls?